An address with 2 accurate predictions of attack times has deposited $6,100, predicting "The US and Iran will reach a ceasefire this month."
By: theblockbeats.news|2026/03/20 14:21:05
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According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the prediction market Polymarket, 2 accounts that had accurately predicted the timing of the US strike on Iran have invested $6,100 in the "Will the US and Iran ceasefire before March 31" market by buying "Yes," currently at an 8% probability. One account had accurately predicted the strike time to the day and profited 16 times, while another account had accurately bet on the timing of the "Twelve-Day War" in 2025 and profited nearly 9 times.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian wrote on X on the evening of March 11: "The only way to end this war triggered by the Zionist regime and the United States is to recognize Iran's legitimate rights, pay compensation, and provide solid international guarantees to prevent future aggression."
The US officials have not yet made a formal compromise response to Iran's specific conditions mentioned above. Their public stance still focuses on demanding Iran to immediately stop military actions and to cut off substantial support to armed proxies in the Middle East.
Note: Based on their past trading profile, the trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but engages in profit-taking and stop-loss behaviors at a certain point after opening a position.
Accounts:
0x1fa1be3eab546e06e4290839bf4c1d7abfbf1fa9
0xfe6eee00d36717359578ddb4d6e091d56bc9074e
Total Investment: $6.1k
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