Analyst: Bitcoin Metrics Show Current Stage More Likely a Bull Market Pause Than Cycle End

BlockBeats News, August 27th, CryptoQuant analyst Axel posted on social media that the current Bitcoin's annualized adjusted MVRV ratio has reached the 1.0 range. This means that the short-term average (30 days) is essentially in line with the annual average (365 days). The annualized basis is still positive, with its curve showing a horizontal trend, stemming from the offsetting forces of two factors: after experiencing a strong rally, the 30-day metric is cooling in sync with volatility and profit-taking speed, while the hefty 365-day average still includes the growth momentum of the past few months. The result is that the numerator and denominator move almost synchronously, narrowing the difference between the two, and the basis line neither declines nor accelerates upward—indicating the market is substantially digesting the earlier gains.

This situation leans more towards a pause in the bull market structure rather than the end of the cycle. As long as the annualized basis does not show a downward reversal, the current state should be seen as a balanced situation rather than a trend reversal: the network is reallocating risk from impatient holders to more patient ones, and there are no signs of panic selling. The market's reaction to the current position in the next few weeks is crucial. At this stage, the market needs more time than a directional reversal.