Economist: Weakening Yen Clears the Path for Bank of Japan's December Rate Hike, Another Hike Likely if Decline Persists

By: theblockbeats.news|2026/03/29 14:09:41

BlockBeats News, December 17th, according to economist Alicia Garcia Herrero's analysis, the continued weakness of the yen is becoming a key factor driving the Bank of Japan and the Japanese government to reach a consensus this month and support the long-awaited rate hike decision. Despite concerns about U.S. tariffs and broader geopolitical risks, the Japanese economy has proven to be more resilient than expected. Short-term, medium-term, and long-term inflation expectations remain higher than the Bank of Japan's 2% target, strengthening the rationale for further policy normalization. Rising food prices have pushed up the core inflation rate, and the yen-to-dollar exchange rate is persistently weakening around 155, which could exacerbate imported inflationary pressures.

Alicia Garcia Herrero expects the Bank of Japan to raise the policy rate by 25 basis points to 0.75% at the meeting on December 19th. Looking ahead, if the yen fails to stabilize after the rate hike and continues to weigh on real incomes, the Japanese government may also accept further tightening policies, potentially opening the door to another 25 basis point rate hike early next year. (Xinhua Finance)

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