Goldman Sachs Previews Non-Farm Payrolls: Data Needs to Be "Substantially Surprising" to Shake Up Fed's Rate Cut Expectations for April

By: theblockbeats.news|2026/03/29 20:07:06
0
Share
copy

BlockBeats News, January 9th, Goldman Sachs stated that the U.S. non-farm payroll report for December 2025, set to be released Friday evening, is unlikely to substantially alter market expectations for the Fed's policy, unless there is a significant unexpected outcome, as current market pricing has solidly anchored on the path of easing policy starting in mid-year.

In a research report to clients, Goldman Sachs expects the non-farm payroll employment to increase by about 70,000, in line with general expectations. Despite unofficial market "whisper numbers" implying a slight upside risk, the bank believes that a result close to expectations would reinforce rather than disrupt the existing macroeconomic narrative.

The market is currently pricing in two 25-basis-point rate cuts by the Fed this year, with the first 25-basis-point cut expected around late April.

Goldman Sachs stated that labor data would need to show a "fairly dramatic" upside or downside surprise to significantly bring forward or push back this timing.

From a market perspective, Goldman Sachs views non-farm payroll data in the range of 70,000 to 100,000 as the most favorable outcome for the stock market, aligning with a scenario of continued economic expansion that neither reignites inflation concerns nor threatens the rate-cutting cycle. Such a result would support the view that the U.S. economy is gradually slowing rather than abruptly stalling.

In contrast, non-farm payroll data below 50,000 would be interpreted as below the level of job growth estimates needed to sustain economic stability, potentially unsettling investors by raising concerns about a sharp growth slowdown.

On the other extreme, Goldman Sachs stated that if the data exceeds 125,000, it may prompt the market to reassess the timing of the Fed's first rate cut, pushing back the expected rate cut to June. (FXStreet)

You may also like

$10,000 in TRUMP Token vs. $10,000 in Nasdaq: The "Trump Trade" That Actually Worked in 2026

TRUMP Token lost more than 96% after its launch, while Nasdaq stocks and NVIDIA delivered strong gains. Compare what happened to a $10,000 investment and explore why asset fundamentals matter more than market hype.

Morning Report | Vitalik outlines Ethereum's long-term roadmap, Lean Ethereum will become the third major iteration; SK Hynix seeks to attract more AI investors by listing in the U.S

July 5 Market Important Events Overview

The impact of OUSD on Circle, Tether, and Paxos: not a single negative factor, but a more complex reshaping of competition

OUSD will not be the last new competitor; Circle needs to respond more actively in terms of products, distribution, and ecosystem collaboration.

Li Feifei's latest long article: When video generation, robots, and NVIDIA all claim to be world models, we need a taxonomy

Language gives machines a way to talk about the world. The world model is the means by which machines ultimately understand, imagine, reason, and interact with it.

Blaming the desolation of the cryptocurrency world on the rise of AI is a form of intellectual laziness

The emergence of giants signifies a mature business model. Although it will reduce speculative space, there is also enough room for error, allowing for the continuous emergence of new forces.

Strategy Founder: The Next 10 Years of Bitcoin

In the next decade, the biggest evolution of Bitcoin is precisely "responding to change with invariance." The four-year cycle is giving way to capital flows such as ETFs, corporate and sovereign reserves, and bank credit, while digital credit and digital currency will grow layer upon layer on top of...

Popular coins

Latest Crypto News

Read more
iconiconiconiconiconiconicon
Customer Support:@weikecs
Business Cooperation:@weikecs
Quant Trading & MM:bd@weex.com
VIP Program:support@weex.com