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The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in April is 98.4%
According to Jinshi reports, CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 1.6%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 98.4%. By June, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 0%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 97.9%, and the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is 2.1%.
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For most people, the two-week US-Iran ceasefire is about geopolitics, oil prices, and whether World War III gets postponed. But for crypto traders glued to their screens late Sunday night, it was something else entirely: the clearest risk-on signal in months.
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Despite the sharp rally, caution is warranted. The $70,000–$72,000 zone has historically been strong resistance. The ceasefire is only temporary (two weeks), and any breakdown in negotiations could trigger a sell-off toward the $62,000–$65,000 support zone. For now, Bitcoin needs to close decisively above $72,500 to confirm a true breakout; failure to do so within 48–72 hours could lead to a swift retracement.
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